Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
